Published originally in the New York Daily News.
“Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos.”
President Biden was of course referring to Russia, and he was dead right. But he could well have been speaking of Iran, which has time and again defied the international community with its nuclear program, its sponsorship of terrorism including bloody attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Jews worldwide, its threats to wipe Israel off the earth, and its continued repression and human rights violations at home.
Iran was first added to America’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism back in 1984, a distinction that has been reaffirmed every year since. Iran continues to back terrorist groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, officially known as Ansar Allah, a group responsible for civilian deaths and destruction across the Middle East including against allies in the Arabian Gulf. Iran has provided its most powerful terrorist proxy group, Hezbollah, with hundreds of millions of dollars in annual financial support, according to the State Department. Iran has also helped Hezbollah amass an arsenal of some 120,000-140,000 rockets and missiles, including more than 100 long-range precision missiles, many of which have been used against Israel. Earlier this year, the Pentagon laid blame for a spate of attacks against bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria on Iran-backed militias.
“They keep moving,” Biden continued in his State of the Union clarion call to confront dictators. “And the costs and threats to America and the world keep rising.”
As America and its allies confront Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, how will we address the costs and threats of Tehran’s mullahs? How will they “pay a price” for destabilizing the greater Middle East for decades? The question cannot be put off forever, particularly as Iran’s breakout capability to develop a nuclear weapon fast approaches and the Biden administration has made advances in getting Tehran back to the negotiating table.
Iran has been under strict sanctions, relieved briefly under President Obama and the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan for Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, but tightened and expanded under President Trump after he abandoned the flawed nuclear pact. And while the Iranian economy has suffered mightily as a result, rather than change the regime’s behavior, the pressure has led Iran’s leadership to dig in. The most recent Iranian elections — which were deemed not to be free or fair by international observers — elected a new, hardline president who has thus far rejected all previous diplomacy and terms. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has remained in power and the nuclear centrifuges keep spinning.
Biden has indicated that his intention is to restart the JCPOA rather than scrap it and start anew as some even in his own party have called for. The deal certainly has enough carrots to induce Iran, including unfreezing Iranian assets and relieving sanctions. On the matter of sanctions relief, there is a further, timely incentive to Iran, brought about by recent events: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created an energy crisis for Europe that has spiked gas prices in the U.S. Removal of sanctions against Iran’s energy sector can help meet global supply needs and bolster the crippled Iranian economy.
But does JCPOA have enough sticks if Iran reverts to past behavior, including supporting regional terrorist proxies, developing missile systems or again accelerating nuclear enrichment? Iran is more isolated than ever before, with the Abraham Accords effectively surrounding it with Gulf States aligned with Israel. Biden has said before that “all options are on the table” should Iran reject or violate the JCPOA. Israel surely has not ruled out military strikes should an existential threat emerge. The potential use of force, a deepening of sanctions, or the threat of increased U.S. support for Iranian opposition groups for any breach of the deal would certainly be construed as a “stick” to a rational actor. Only time will tell if regime survival is a strong enough motivator to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons and menacing the world.
Biden’s remarks about how to deal with dictators should be welcomed by friends of peace and freedom everywhere. If doctrinaire, his position should extend to Iran. So should the example of how the world has dealt with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There has been a painful lack of global solidarity on how to contain Iranian aggression. When the Trump administration “snapped back” UN sanctions on Iran, it was against the will of our European allies. It’s time for our allies to put up or shut up. If they want a return to JCPOA, they must lock arms with the U.S. on the penalties should Iran not come to the table and agree to and abide by a strengthened agreement that thwarts Tehran’s stated nuclear ambitions.
