A Political Umpire for the Jewish Community – 2022 Elections

February 2, 2022

The upcoming midterm elections will determine the fate of Congress for the second half of President Biden’s term. So far, President Biden has enjoyed Democratic majorities in both Chambers of Congress, yet this will be put to the test on November 8, 2022.

Historically, the political party of the incumbent president loses significant numbers of seats in Congress at a rate of about 30 seats. If that trend continues this year in the House, the Republicans will assume control of the lower Chamber. The Senate this year however favors the Democrats’ likelihood of maintaining control, as 20 of the 34 seats up for election this cycle are currently held by Republicans, meaning Republicans have more turf to defend. In addition, estimates are that there are 2 – 3 more competitive seats at risk for Republicans than Democrats.

All of this matters to the American Jewish community as this election is of great consequence. Multiple issues are on the ballot that impact the Jewish vote – from support for Israel to efforts to combat antisemitism to domestic issues like health care, the environment, the economy, and racial justice. Specific candidate views on topics like the Boycotts, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, the Iran nuclear deal, and Israel’s continued delegitimization at international bodies will also be top of mind.

That’s why we’re happy to share our new Jewish Political Guide with you. Our goal this year is to ensure that you, the voter, will use the guide as a go-to resource for understanding the issues that affect the Jewish community and its votes.

In particular, we will be highlighting three types of races that impact both the Jewish community and the country. 

• First, there will be open seats where an incumbent has departed and the race is competitive, meaning either party can win, and the outcome of the primaries is crucial.
• Second, there will be serious challengers to incumbents in competitive races, where the incumbent is on the ballot; in these races, either party’s candidate can win and their views on the issues are critical to success.
• Third, there will be safe incumbents who are champions on Jewish/Israel issues, where the candidates’ views on the issues are predictable as they already have a track record, their victory is all but assured, and they are true leaders on the issues that matter.

We will be rolling out assessments of these races so that the Jewish community can have an unbridled and independent umpire helping it to keep score. These assessments will also help the political community to learn more about what matters to American Jewish voters.

We will do this work by publishing a review of the candidates’ positions on the issues; sharing interview videos from the candidates; holding Jewish Community Conversation forums with the candidates; conducting polls of Jewish voters in targeted areas; and publishing thought pieces, like this one, for the community. We will also work to get out the Jewish vote.

For starters, here are the upcoming Senate races that we’re looking to assess:

1. Open Seats
   • OH – primary date: May 3
   • NC – primary date: May 17 
   • PA – primary date: May 17
   • MO – primary date: August 2
2. Serious Challengers
   • GA – Raphael Warnock (D), primary date: May 24
   • NV – Catherine Cortez Masto (D); primary date: June 14 
   • CO – Michael Bennet (D); primary date: June 28
   • AZ – Mark Kelly (D); primary date: August 2
   • WI – Ron Johnson (R); primary date: August 9
   • FL – Marco Rubio (R); primary date: August 23
   • NH – Maggie Hassan (D); primary date: September 13
3. Safe Incumbents
   • IN – Todd Young (R); primary date: May 3
   • NY – Chuck Schumer (D); primary date: June 7
   • OK – James Lankford (R); primary date: June 28
   • CT – Richard Blumenthal (D); primary date: August 9

For updates on our work at the Jewish Political Guide, sign up here. And let us know your views on critical work in front of us.